Platts Energy Consulting recently revealed that China and India are the world's major construction polyvinyl chloride (PVC) markets. After the two countries have cancelled anti-dumping duties on PVC from many regions and opened the door to new trade flows, the two countries will Play an important role in the global PVC export market in 2020.
The Indian government cancelled the anti-dumping duties on PVC from the European Union, Japan, Malaysia and Indonesia in July this year. Competition in the domestic PVC market is intensifying. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced in October this year that it had cancelled anti-dumping duties on PVC imports from the United States, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea at the end of September. According to market sources, Asian PVC producers may begin to export more goods to China, while reducing exports to other regions such as India.
India needs to import about 2 million tons of PVC each year to meet domestic demand. The Indian government has introduced plans to increase the supply of PVC to produce plastic pipes to ensure clean water supplies in rural areas. This indicates that India's PVC demand will further increase. However, since the cancellation of anti-dumping duties, low-priced imported ocean cargo has depressed India's domestic PVC prices. According to data from Standard & Poor's Global Platts Energy Information, from January to October this year, the average price of PVC in India was $ 902.44 / ton (CFR, India), while the average price in 2018 was $ 967.55 per ton.
With weak European demand, the supply of PVC goods from Europe may continue until 2020. For the European PVC market, the adverse trend of the second half of 2019 will continue in the first half of 2020, and the profit margin of PVC production will still be squeezed. A European PVC producer said: "The lowest price in the European PVC market is significantly lower than the standard price in the export market. This will stimulate European PVC producers to release some pressure and shift more capacity to export."
Although India has reduced anti-dumping duties on PVC from US producers, it has not completely eliminated anti-dumping duties, giving tax-exempt exporters a clear advantage. China is the second largest export market for PVC in the United States after Canada. Although China cancelled its anti-dumping duties on US PVC in October, due to the impact of Sino-US trade friction, PVC still faces tariffs.
Market participants said that about 60% of the world's PVC is used in construction, so the PVC market tends to change with macroeconomic trends and changes in the infrastructure market. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 3% in 2019, the lowest level since the global financial crisis. The IMF predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 3.4% in 2020. Although the 2020 economic outlook assumes improved economic performance in Latin America, the Middle East and some other regions, the IMF also expects uncertainty to remain, including slowing economic developments in Europe, the United States and China.
U.S. market sources said: "The overall demand for PVC is still weak. Considering freight and other costs, end users are increasingly demanding lower PVC prices." But PVC producers insist that despite the current weak market demand, over time Over time, global PVC demand will exceed supply, because PVC lacks a significant capacity increase compared to other polymers such as polyethylene. Jeff Holy, chief financial officer of West Lake Chemical Company, said: "In the past 10 years, driven by the growth in demand for construction and infrastructure, global PVC demand has increased from 30 million tons / year to about 40 million tons / year in many emerging markets."